Terrible take. People think they can tell when someone is bluffing or lying, mostly they cannot. As someone who does a lot of contract negotiations, who has to bluff all the time, and as someone who also does a lot of audits where I have to spot bluffing all the time I see it both ways. Most people are bad at spotting liars and bullshitters, however good news, most people are also absolutely terrible liars and bullshitters so you don’t need to be good, however this gives a false sense of security in your instincts, you are not Sherlock Holmes, you can’t sniff out a lie a mile away and if your opposite number is half way competent the only way to be really know is to do your homework and catch people out in hard data and in evidence. Me included, I’ve been fooled before and doubtless will be fooled again. It’s the nature of the beast. The only way you can reliably find truth is to know more about your opposite number than they do and to test every premise you can. Conversely the more you can control knowledge about your own position and obfuscate the more margin you have to present a position to your benefit. So long as you’re smart enough to understand what your opponent can know and can’t know it’s very easy to distort a picture.