• UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    4
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    17 days ago

    the biggest current threat to the government in the polls might lose his seat to Count Binface

    Show me the poll that suggests BinFace has a chance in a safe conservative district. Everything I’ve seen is “Farage National Approval Rating” and “National Support/Oppose”.

    Nobody is even bothering to poll the actual district, because it is so lopsided.

    • ajoebyanyothername@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      11
      ·
      17 days ago

      The polls I referred to are about Reform generally being the biggest threat to Labour. Haven’t seen any polls regarding this by election, but the argument I’ve seen is that the votes for anyone other than Nigel last time outnumbered his votes, so those votes might well go to Count Binface since no other major parties are fielding a candidate. Which seems wishful thinking, but is a possibility.

      Overall, there isn’t really a great outcome for Nigel here. He either wins, which isn’t much of a victory given the (lack of) opposition, or he loses, which is devastating for his credibility. Regardless, I still think this is a bigger story than you originally made out.

      • PaleRider@feddit.uk
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        11
        ·
        17 days ago

        Also, his resignation that caused this by-election was to distract from the fact that he was being investigated for not declaring a large donation to his election fund.

        If he wins, the investigation will continue and may trigger another by-election.