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Cake day: June 13th, 2023

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  • Still, the closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at 538 recently: A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close. All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently “losing”in each. While the polls have identified a close race, our model shows what you should expect if those polls are off.

    Margin-of-error polling cannot tell us anything other than that it is too close to call. These headlines are just capitalising on the attention ahead of the actual election.