The new Cold War is a business opportunity, and Mexico looks better placed than almost any other country to seize it.
US-China tensions are rewiring global trade, as the US seeks to reduce supply-chain reliance on geopolitical rivals and also source imports from closer to home. Mexico appeals on both counts—which is one reason it’s just overtaken China as the biggest supplier of goods to the giant customer next door.
On top of resurgent exports, Mexico boasts the world’s strongest currency this year and one of the best-performing stock markets. Foreign direct investment is already up more than 40% in 2023, even before Tesla Inc. starts building a proposed $5 billion factory. Not since the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement in the 1990s has the country held the kind of allure for investors that it has right now.
I worked in logistics for a while, so I should add one small caveat:
A lot of that will be stuff that comes from China and is then re-exported. IRC exports from China to Mexico increased something like 30% last year. I’m sure Mexico’s lovely, but I don’t think Mexicans are suddenly buying 30% more Chinese goods.
I saw this often. There’d be tariffs on Chinese products, then suddenly the exact same product would be made in Vietnam, Thailand, or wherever, a country which just happened to not be subject to tariffs. You can’t move a rice field over the border in half a month, so yeah.
Sometimes it was obvious fraud. Stickers over the original stickers.
Sometimes it’d be repackaged or ‘reprocessed’ so it was technically no longer a Chinese product.
I’m afraid you’re wrong with that. Mexico is buying more than ever directly from China retailers. Sales have skyrocketed since pandemic started. Chinese online retailers like Shein, AliExpress, and now Temu are mainly at the top of online retailers charts in Mexico.
Man those tarrifs must be sky high considering how much expense this would add over directly going and that is not even considering mexico wanting a slice of what passes through.