If they are to take it, they need to take it before winter.
Taking it before winter means they can consolidate in the area over the winter, prepare a defensive position that will similarily bog down Ukraine in spring, and have an uncontested springboard for bombing and other civilian harassment all winter.
If Ukraine holds it, they will reinforce it for spring, and use it to harass the much worse Russian positions supporting the front.
Perhaps, but the weather change is recent, and perhaps the reports haven’t convinced enough of the leadership that the weather is bad enough that stacking bodies won’t overcome it.
But then again, a lot of the Russian big pushes have been of questionable war importance. There seems to be at least two more games being played in parallel (army & other internal politicking, but also non-military interest groups), probably even more.
Regardless of why, it seems clear Russia is playing for something different than Ukrainian annexation and genocide, but I’ve heard little credible analysis as to what it could be.
The most credible guess seems to be dreams of reinstating USSR/Russian Empire as a legacy after Putin, but this has so many holes and contradictions to previous actions that Putin’s deathbed is one of the only plausible explanations. And the costs by now surely must have exceeded any indulgence of a dying leader?
Anyone wanting to succeed him must weigh the already decade long repercussions against his lifespan. And we’re not very far off having enough deaths and ruined relations that it will define another Russian generation regardless of if they win the war or not.
If they are to take it, they need to take it before winter.
Taking it before winter means they can consolidate in the area over the winter, prepare a defensive position that will similarily bog down Ukraine in spring, and have an uncontested springboard for bombing and other civilian harassment all winter.
If Ukraine holds it, they will reinforce it for spring, and use it to harass the much worse Russian positions supporting the front.
Yes, strategically you are right. But obviously that’s to late now.
Perhaps, but the weather change is recent, and perhaps the reports haven’t convinced enough of the leadership that the weather is bad enough that stacking bodies won’t overcome it.
But then again, a lot of the Russian big pushes have been of questionable war importance. There seems to be at least two more games being played in parallel (army & other internal politicking, but also non-military interest groups), probably even more.
Regardless of why, it seems clear Russia is playing for something different than Ukrainian annexation and genocide, but I’ve heard little credible analysis as to what it could be.
The most credible guess seems to be dreams of reinstating USSR/Russian Empire as a legacy after Putin, but this has so many holes and contradictions to previous actions that Putin’s deathbed is one of the only plausible explanations. And the costs by now surely must have exceeded any indulgence of a dying leader?
Anyone wanting to succeed him must weigh the already decade long repercussions against his lifespan. And we’re not very far off having enough deaths and ruined relations that it will define another Russian generation regardless of if they win the war or not.