Modelling of how Trump’s tariffs will hit global trade suggests the US will be the biggest loser – while a few nations may emerge as surprising winners.

Modelling of how Trump’s tariffs will hit global trade suggests the US will be the biggest loser – while a few nations may emerge as surprising winners.

Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://theconversation.com/new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest-253320

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  • oce 🐆
    112·
    2 days ago

    I don’t understand why some countries get a gain from additional tariffs.

    The article doesn’t explain the mechanism.

    Some nations gain from the trade war. Typically, these face relatively low US tariffs (and consequently also impose relatively low tariffs on US goods). New Zealand (0.29%) and Brazil (0.28%) experience the largest increases in GDP. New Zealand households are better off by $397 per year.

    • Barbarian@sh.itjust.works
      24·
      2 days ago

      My unfounded guess is that they sell products that normally compete with a soon to be crippled US market, so their products can fill the void. Think car sales from China to the EU after the tarrifs cripple manufacturing, for example.

    • shirro@aussie.zoneEnglish
      15·
      2 days ago

      Australia’s top 3 export markets are China, South Korea and Japan. If they put retaliatory tariffs on the US we should pick up extra business as we will have a price advantage. When the US duped our old conservative PM, Scummo, into pissing of China they put up trade barriers and our “mates” including Canada, NZ and USA all gained at our expense. It’s nothing personal.

      We don’t export much to the US and 10% is as low as it goes. Without retaliation the US tariffs would only be a tax on US consumers. But the retaliation from other large economies will damage US exports and jobs and give opportunities to other nations. Thanks, I guess.

      • veroxii@aussie.zone
        6·
        2 days ago

        Also Australia is actually trading at a deficit with the USA. We buy way more from them than they buy from us. Which shows this narrative of Trump to reduce the trade deficit is bullshit.

        For this reason though I don’t think Australia will do retaliatory tariffs. Why hurt ourselves more when the USA is less than 5% of our exports?

    • subignition@fedia.io
      18·
      2 days ago

      I think it is because countries impacted the least by new tariffs are most likely to have new trade with OTHER countries affected more heavily by the tariffs.

    • driving_crooner@lemmy.eco.br
      12·
      2 days ago

      If country A is tariffed 20% and country B is tariffed 10%; that mean country B have an advantage against country A and can get some of the marked A is losing.

    • Sanctus@lemmy.worldEnglish
      2·
      2 days ago

      Maybe they already had some sort of tariff? Maybe it modifies the existing trade deal somehow? Idk I’m not an economist just a peasant.