YEP [he/him]

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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 7th, 2022

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  • I typed up a electoralism brain(gross I know) rant about polling in reply to [@Parzivus@hexbear.net (https://hexbear.net/u/Parzivus) bc I’m poster brained.

    I mean yea, it’s bad bc Dems need to lead like 3ish% on national polls bc electoral college. Also people, I’m talking generally not saying this is you, wish cast polling errors oh it was wrong in favor of trump(2016) or it was wrong in favor of Dems(2022). When in reality there usually very specific errors in the polling. In 2016 people though Texas would flip bc bad polling practices in heavily Hispanic areas or in 22 putting too much weight in junk pollsters. Even with those errors if you actually look at polls say in 2016 the week of election polls had Clinton up on average around 3% and the margin of error on those polls were like ±1.7-3.5%. She won the popular vote by 2.1%, a result well with the margins of polling.

    Like poor analysis in media is a given, the polling is for the most part very sound

    Sorry I don’t really have an outlet to talk politics shit. I typed all this out so I may as well post. I kinda rant some times on here, Im hating on you.

    I’m just a chronic polling defender bc nerd

















  • I thing your misreading my pessimism for America as optimism of walz. Shit is dire we are commiting genocide in broad daylight. I had never been more doomer than I was before Biden dropped out for context.

    On his record as governor this is gonna prob come off as dumb wonk shit. Like you can point to his lt governor pushing him left but like he is championing these things publicly everywhere rather than shying away like every other dem. Look at Shapiro fighting his own party on things like school privatisation. I don’t really see any evidence he doesn’t believe this stuff. Even if he doesn’t believe it I think we should be pushing his selection bc he can beade to compromise. I think the biggest reason to shit on lesser evil voting is the lesser evil in America is always someone who can’t be pushed, it’s useless. Walz, who will be president of a split Senate if the Dems can hold onto their 50 seats, I, yea maybe optimistic w/e, looks like he can be pushed.

    On a more general sense the Dems not picking someone on the far right of the part is just such a shock to me personally idk.