BynarsAreOk [none/use name]

  • 9 Posts
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Joined 4 years ago
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Cake day: March 16th, 2021

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  • I think at least since COVID its clear its as much anti-Biden than pro-Trump. For both of them actualy its more about what the opposition says or does than your own rethoric, not to deny that is important, but clearly some people vote more based on what they hate the most.

    So we look back and Biden spent 4 years gaslighting people that everything is fine even if your rent doubled. They repeat Fed shit through the liberal media as if people not only understand but agree with all the punching left/down they’re doing.

    “Inflation is under control”, “robust jobs market”, “excess savings” lol you know the memes I’m sure.





  • Yes, re-industrialization can and will eventually happen, but it won’t happen immediately.

    It definitely wont happen exactly because there is a reason capitalists moved to the global south in the first place. Industry in the north is not profitable. This will never change unless the north population goes through either some massive economic shock doctrine akin to a WW2/3 scenario or probably massive climate change catastrophe.

    Its like every single time we forget history, the only reason why the US industry grew in the first place, the only reason the west managed to industrialize in the first place, the obvious consequences for Germany when they were put on the dead end of industrialization(e.g entirely dependent on imported energy).

    If we consider these things the US is far more likely to collapse and balkanize. I expect chuds shooting liberals well before chuds and liberals hands together working in a factory for $5 an hour which is necessary for industrial profitability nowadays.

    This is not to say that America will be a bad place to live in, it is simply that its standard of living will be below what its citizens are currently able to “enjoy” (in relative terms to the Global South). Meanwhile, real economic growth will happen in the East where their living standards will be far above the former Imperial Core, and you can expect many skilled talents would seek to emigrate as well.

    If by “East” you mean China yeah maybe if we consider the richest cities, otherwise you need some reality checks on what the average work and life condition in Japan and South Korea is like.





  • Not sure why this type of garbage mainstream econ “common sense” got upvoted.

    Respecfuly, read Graeber’s BS jobs. China isn’t a magical place exempt from those issues. On the contrary, recent years there is an issue with larger youth unemployment due to too many graduates not finding white collar jobs i.e people want BS jobs that pay well and give benefits. It got nothing to do with productivity or the “workforce”.

    Tell the office workers in every T1 city they have to take 4h off every week to help with local community services for example, or just reduce the work hours in general.

    There are solutions, it requires the party to reevaluate their commitment to economic growth at any cost. China is a complicated topic but the easiest way for them to fail is to listen to exactly this type of mainstream western econ shitty rethoric and surprise surprise stupid decisions like this happens exactly when they do that.


  • It’s impossible to know what he was thinking in the aftermath but I think it was possible his massive adrenaline rush made him forget that actual reality is not like reality tv. When you die in reality - that’s it. You’re actually dead.

    IMO Trump doesn’t have an ideological drive that justifies personal sacrifice, on the contrary he is extremely selfish and MAGA atracts exactly a huge part of this selfish chauvinistic white population.

    So yeah when he had the opportunity to reflect on whether any of this is worth dying for he probably couldn’t answer with “yes” unequivocally. Heck I doubt he even actualy cares or believes in actual MAGA rhetoric if it doesn’t include direct benefits to people like him.

    Not like this isn’t obvious either, bullies tend to be cowards as a stereotype and first of all Trump’s entire personal life before MAGA was entirely as part of the privileged capitalist class. He is part of the least likely group of people to ever consider any sort of altruism or sacrifice for a greater goal.


  • Personaly climate change is still the main issue. The data showed the COVID lockdowns were similar to what would be necessary to avoid 1.5C.

    At the bare minimum if you wanted to be “civil” about it, we would need global governments to completely enforce a survival mode only economic system, no economic activity beyond the stritcly necessary.

    On that front China should absolutely be praised as they’re literaly the only ones improving massively, but unfortunately its not enough, the longer we take the more drastic measures would be necessary. Crazy to think but its 2025 already and literaly all projections followed the “worst possible” or “Unexpected” projection lol.

    A large part of my frustration is that our past revolutionary comrades never predicted or had to deal with such a hard deadline. Lenin, Mao or Castro etc, none of them were told “if you fail humanity will die in less than a generation”.

    And it is this lack of urgency that is worrysome. I realy couldn’t care less about Chinese or Soviet “diplomacy” towards the US if the year was 1955 and all we fantasized was FALGSC in the year 2000.

    Instead its 2025 and we count how many different climate disasters are going to happen within the next 10 years.


  • Russia got too comfortable with the mild sanctions effect in the first two years that they actually believed they can rely on China forever. They are now paying the price.

    This is entirely expected, but it wasn’t a “mistake”. The entire dedollarization rhetoric is a relic of 2022 when it was looking like China was actualy willing to take an independent and adversarial stance against the west. This meant BRICS could have been a viable alternative for a multipolar world under Chinese leadership. Maybe if China continued on that path and decided 2022-2025 would be the time period to settle the Taiwan question using BRICS as their defensive bloc.

    Instead of course we get the opposite. The west complained, a Pelosi humiliated them and the media called them “wolf warriors” then everything took a 180 turn. China since then reassured the west that they wont even try to use BRICS as their own bloc/platform and that they only want “collaboration” and “peace”.

    I’ll quote MR way from April '23 where he basicaly confirms all these “difficulties” with dedollarization(putting it mildly)

    spoiler

    It’s undoubtedly true that the imposition of economic sanctions on Russia employed by the imperialist governments – banning of energy imports; seizing FX reserves; closing international banking settlement systems – has accelerated the move away from holding the dollar and euro. However, Lagarde added the caveat that this trend is still way short of dramatically changing the global financial order. “These developments do not point to any imminent loss of dominance for the US dollar or the euro. So far, the data do not show substantial changes in the use of international currencies. But they do suggest that international currency status should no longer be taken for granted.”

    Lagarde is right. As I have shown in previous posts, that although the US and the EU have lost ground in the share of world production, trade and even currency transactions and reserves, there is still a long way to go before declaring a ‘fragmented’ world economy in that sense.

    The US dollar (and to a lesser extent the euro) remains dominant in international payments. The US dollar is not being gradually replaced by the euro, or the yen, or even the Chinese renminbi, but by a batch of minor currencies.

    The US dollar and its hegemony is not under threat yet because “50-60% of foreign-held US short-term assets are in the hands of governments with strong ties to the United States – meaning they are unlikely to be divested for geopolitical reasons.” (Lagarde). And it’s even the case that ‘anti-US’ China remains heavily committed in its FX reserves to the US dollar. China publicly reported that it reduced the dollar share of its reserves from 79% to 58% between 2005 and 2014. But China doesn’t appear to have changed the dollar share of its reserves in the last ten years.

    As Patrick Bond put it recently: “The “talk left, walk right” of BRICS’ role in global finance is seen not only in its vigorous financial support for the International Monetary Fund during the 2010s, but more recently in the decision by the BRICS New Development Bank – supposedly an alternative to the World Bank – to declare a freeze on its Russian portfolio in early March, since otherwise it would not have retained its Western credit rating of AA+. ” And Russia is a 20% equity holder in NDB.

    Ouch

    Since the stupid embarrassing Xi-Biden meeting in Nov '23(which happened over a month after Oct 7th and after everyone knew what the Gaza genocide looked like), China says US bad for everyone that wants to hear. Then they turn around and literaly welcome the same people we call nazis here. They are following through with what they say, like it or not.

    I think dedollarization is still possible but it requires commitment to creating a crisis for the global economy and sadly nobody wants that. Sadly atm there is not much to look forward to, there is no indication China will change their stance.


  • I think that China could do absolutely untold damage to the American psyche and illusion of invulnerability if it simply instantly obliterated these clowns on Taiwan from hundreds of kilometers away with a cloud of drones dense enough to block out the sun.

    IDK about this, I think this is quite unrealistic and almost mythical level thinking.

    IMO drones work well in Ukraine because its a huge battlefield we haven’t seen something like this since WW2. For some context the Ukraine war front is well over 1000km.

    The current Korean DMZ is a “tiny” 250km. The Taiwan straight is also something like 300kmx180km or so.

    This means that both sides have trouble providing consistent and effective air cover for their troops, despite the Russian natural advantage Ukrainian drones are still quite effective.

    Turning to Taiwan this is the opposite, it would be a very concentrated battle and anti-drone systems should be more effective simply because its a smaller area.

    China already achieved military superiority over the US and the conflict will be decided over naval superiority by destroying or even damaging the US carrier fleet. In fact I do like the theory sinking a US carrier would be far worse than 9/11 for the average population and internal US politics, although perhaps that would mean accepting a WW3.