BynarsAreOk [none/use name]

  • 10 Posts
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Joined 4 years ago
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Cake day: March 16th, 2021

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  • Putin submitted the draft of the agreement with the DPRK just this week. This is a good time for circunstancial evidence like this.

    Yes this seems quite clear if its all true the DPRK wants field experience and it may have been what was already agreed back in June. If Russia is truly commiting to a defensive alliance with the DPRK then its not at all unlikely Ukraine war cooperation was part of the deal.

    I also don’t understand why people want to be so opposite to this idea, the DPRK is doing exactly what China should be doing imo. One country is arming and preparing for war while the other watches the world burn and decides now is the time to get in bed with Wall Street while crying US bad every UN meeting.

    As for your point on stability, I wonder the significant of these recent SK drones crossing the border not because of stupid pamphlets, but because its obvious at the very least SK may have learned from Ukrainian tactics. These are quite obvious field tests and could be a warning sign.

    I think one thing that should be mentioned about drones is that Russia is not omnipotent and has suffered from the occasional successful Ukrainian drone attacks, indeed some hits on Russian airbases was a terrible look e.g Morozovsk recently. Russia says there was no damage but you’re shifting the goal post Ukrainians and the west are stupid and incompetent and shouldn’t have managed to even get there remember? Famous Russian cope exists from the very start of the war too.

    Of course it doesn’t mean Ukraine is winning(or is even capable) but these are lessons that must be learned like the fact Russia lost a number of ships now. Doesn’t change the war but it shapes the future understanding of war.

    I’m willing to bet the DPRK understands this threat now can’t be ignored. The same kind of strikes on DPRK infrastructure could be devastating so the logical conclusion is the DPRK wants to be ready for a snap war declaration if such an incident happens. It doesn’t have to mean they’re willing to go on the offensive overnight for no reason, but that they’ll take no excuses or justifications for SK aggression.


  • That article is from last year and since then NVDIA is now “worth” 11% of the US GDP as a consequence, so I can kind of understand how you can see this as some sort of “miracle”.

    What is the opposite of capitalism realism? Capitalist absurdism? We are increasingly seeing events and trends that defy even previous well established mainstream rethoric.

    Surely they’re already believing or soon will turn into the old too big to fail rethoric, everyone prepares for the crash that never comes. When it does come its not a crash at all but a “pullback” only. The line only goes up, you may lose all your money but as long as Blackrock servers keep running the HFT algos Wall Street will be open every weekday at 9am.

    At some point yeah, its like believing no matter what happens the church will always be there etc. There is some argument the closer we are to climate collapse the more we will regress towards fantasy escapist beliefs. The world is shit but AI will save us is just what a 14th century peasant would be saying about the church and god during the Bubonic plague. We haven’t changed.










  • Not much that can be said without evoking nihilistic thoughts tbh.

    Personaly I thought COVID was a real opportunity and there would be a lot more severe consequences from it, specialy when things were about to hit the cool zone(mass evictions etc) but the world sucessfuly managed to enforce the business as usual rhetoric(even China caved on Zero covid), sweep everything under the rug and move on.

    Those who lost family members(despite precations) got fucked. No justice or consequence. This is the preview you need. We will ignore and dismiss as much as possible. Those who revolt or start seeing the problem will become targets. Ecofascism will find the easiest answers and the left is completely unprepared.

    The nihilism comes from realizing perhaps we’re dead set on this path for some time now, its not a recent change and probably nobody alive today had a real chance of fighting to avoid this fate.




  • The @xiaohongshu@hexbear.net approach would be to praise America for subverting that Chinese plan, and I can’t really say that’s terribly wrong, but the Biden admin October Surprise-ing itself due to potentially dramatically raising oil prices also doesn’t seem very productive.

    Oil prices are not likely to go higher no matter what(nukes flying into Saudi Arabia excluded).

    OPEC+ is currently doing “voluntary” supply cuts. The majority of these cuts are coming from SA and they are under pressure as a result of the long term downtrend they’re having a budget crisis.

    Right now the issue is some members(inc. Iraq/Russia) have to do their own production cuts to compensate for previous overproduction. However if there is no compliance SA is threatning to cancel their cut which could move oil even lower.

    For now all members are reassuring they’ll comply with the cuts which is what SA wants to see, but if this doesn’t happen the only destination is lower prices. Alternatively any major real war will be a great relief for them as these cuts will then be delayed/reduced overall. It also means there is more than enough supply ready to counter any crisis.

    The underlying downtrend is driven by the weak Chinese demand narrative and it wont change in the short-medium term, at the end everyone knows China is the only real growing economy.

    It can’t be understated, Saudi Minister Warns of $50 Oil as OPEC+ Members Flout Production Curbs(WSJ)



  • You should ignore for a moment the same theories people keep posting here and look at what people like Rand corp actualy say about Russia.

    Here this is a great paper by them. Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia(2024)

    It shows exactly what they consider to be the relevant points about Russia today. In general these neolibs always see Russia as a geopolitical rival, they don’t believe to have “won” per se because there is a deep fundamental distrust and a belief(also racist) that they’ll never be truly on board with US interests.

    The chart on that page is excellent actually.

    I’ve highlighted the key points from both groups below.

    spoiler

    World A: After the Less Favorable WarWar outcomes

    The conflict ends after a long war of attrition

    China provides lethal aid to Russia

    The war ends in a weak ceasefire

    Ukraine suffers modest territorial setbacks

    Strategic setting in the immediate aftermath of the war

    Russia is primarily imperialist and also security-motivated

    Russia is weakened by the war but poised to rearm

    Russia-China relations are very close

    Ukraine is focused on territorial reconquest

    Ukraine is economically devastated

    NATO is divided over wartime policy toward Russia and Ukraine

    The U.S. shift to the Indo-Pacific region is limited by the war in Europe

    There are U.S.-China tensions because of Beijing’s support for Moscow

    Global economic fragmentation occurs because of sanctions and counter-sanctions

    And

    Hardline Approach

    Strategic stability

    Reject arms control negotiations

    Develop new nuclear capabilities and expand force posture

    Deploy more BMD installations

    Deploy intermediate-range ground-based missiles to Europe

    Military presence in Europe

    Sustain elevated force levels

    Deploy more forces into Eastern Europe

    Reject talks on limiting conventional forces in Europe

    Security relationship with Ukraine

    Provide assistance that enables offensive operations

    Integrate Ukraine’s military into NATO

    Support open door and Ukrainian membership

    Policy toward other non-NATO former Soviet states

    Support Georgia’s NATO integration and membership

    Increase security cooperation with regional states

    Roll back Russian influence

    Economic relations with Russia

    Sustain most wartime sanctions

    As you can see, its both frightening and elucidating how painfuly obvious they are about their goals and how they consider getting there.

    Ukraine is a plan gone wrong and that plan is to contain Russian interests. For example, they’ve appropriated Imperialism mean a vulgar term completely opposite to Lenin’s. Rand corp ghouls and everyone in Washington truly believe Russia is an imperialist competitor.

    Here is another of their research papers from 2019

    Despite these vulnerabilities and anxieties, Russia remains a powerful country that still manages to be a U.S. peer competitor in a few key domains. Recognizing that some level of competition with Russia is inevitable, RAND researchers conducted a qualitative assessment of “cost-imposing options” that could unbalance and overextend Russia. Such cost-imposing options could place new burdens on Russia, ideally heavier burdens than would be imposed on the United States for pursuing those options.

    In the Geopolitical Cost-Imposing Options they included “Provide lethal aid to Ukraine” as medium-high cost and success rates.

    In Economic Cost-Imposing Options they put “Impose deeper trade and financial sanctions” as high and clearly listed “Increase Europe’s ability to import LNG from sources other than Russia” which was literaly the opposite of what happened and the reason for EU’s crash.

    Further below you can read the section Land and Multidomain Cost-Imposing Measures and basicaly note how all options revolve around increasing US military presence in Europe and more militarization of NATO.

    It is clear to me these people would not be suggesting this back in 2019 if they didn’t think Russia was a real competitor.

    Of course I don’t think these people are particularly correct or even 100% truthful, but to have a pulse on what neolibs think does require to read and listen to what they actualy say.

    Unfortunately we have not moved on from what Michael Hudson popularized in '22. The idea the US somehow wanted this war just to destroy the EU is not accurate. For example the US did not believe energy prices would skyrocket, they even tried the price cap so they could reduce Russian profits and stop the inflation crisis worldwide.