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After the bubble pops how much would our lives be impacted?
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Would AI vanish or still be there?
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How exactly do you think the bubble will pop? Will AI companies simply run out of money? Or will it be because of the environmental effects?
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When do you think the “pop” will take place?
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After the bubble pops, in future there will be companies/people who will try the AI thing again? What will that be like?
Internet was the “AI” of the dotcom bubble. It didn’t go anywhere after the bubble burst and neither will AI. What will go away are the companies with only hype but no product. Amazon and eBay came about during the dotcom bubble and now companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will likely be equivalent ones.
The bubble bursts when investors start losing faith that the company they have invested into will become profitable so they pull out, which makes other investors get scared so they pull out too and then the company goes under.
OpenAI and Anthropic will likely be the companies going under when the bubble bursts. Because unlike all the other big companies involved in AI (Nvidia, Microslop, Google, Meta etc.), they don’t have anything else to diversify with and they have never made a profit. When investors withdraw they are done for. The other companies will take a hit, but they will survive, because they have profits from other things.
The difference is that there were services that could leverage the Internet and be profitable. Every AI company is wildly unprofitable and burning unfathomable amounts of money. There’s no path for them to become profitable, unlike some companies in the dotcom era.
Exactly. The AI bubble popping will not “un-invent” AI technology. The technology exists and can be a useful tool for the right use cases, just like the internet still existed after the dotcom bubble popped.
LLMs will still exist and will still be trained and used. What won’t exist are AI only companies.
I personally would exclude OpenAI from my list of likely to endure. OpenAI partners are largely switching to Anthropic, their models and tools are generally less well regarded. The only time I had someone advocate for them it was due to some scenario where it was much cheaper.
Problem is that based on what I’ve read. Altman has way overextended his company. The financial obligations outpace their revenue and likely revenue way too much.
Anthropic has some risk since Microsoft, Google, and Apple insourcing would be a big problem for them.