The advanced retail sales report showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.7% for the month, better than the 0.4% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding autos, sales rose a robust 1%, also against a 0.4% forecast. Both readings were the best monthly gains since January.
It seems as long as consumer spending remains strong the risk of recession is low despite the rapid Fed rate hikes.
It’s true that inflation presents an arbitrage opportunity, but I seriously doubt the average consumer is thinking with anything close to that level of sophistication. I mean, most consumers leave debt sitting on their credit card instead of paying it off when they can.