The Boxoffice Podium Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | July 11 – 13, 2025 Week 28 | July 11 – 13, 2025 1. SupermanWarner Bros. | NEWWeekend Range: $115M – $135MShowtime Marketshare: 35% Pros Cons James Gunn’s upbeat new Superman is coming in with the advantage in both audience and critical […]
    • MimicJar@lemmy.worldMEnglish
      5·
      4 days ago

      Yeah, that would be a good opening weekend.

      If we compare it to 2024 releases it would put it about 5th for the year, similar to Wicked.

      But comparing different films is hard because some films cost most than others. For example Wicked cost $150m and Superman cost $225m.

      So, roughly, you want a film at a minimum to make back twice its budget, three times its budget is the real goal and anything above that is a huge hit. Films with low marketing can be happier at 2x the budget, films with high marketing (like Superman) really want to reach that 3x goal.

      The most money you’ll ever make is opening weekend. The weekends that follow are usually half that amount, sometimes wayyyy less (depends on the film quality/hype/etc.)

      So $115m the first weekend, plus (let’s say ~1/3rd) 40m and then plus (let’s say ~1/3rd again) 15m. So that’s, assuming a really conservative trajectory, ~170m domestic. You can probably get a little more but Fantastic 4 comes out later in the month, but let’s give it another $10m, to come to a total of $180m.

      Now the film cost $225m and has a ton of marketing. So $180m is less than $225m. BUT! That’s all domestic so far. A film trending this high of an opening weekend domestically will probably double that amount internationally, especially if it is released in China and most superhero films are.

      So at the moment it’s trending, assuming some worst case numbers, to be an acceptable release, probably a slight loss once you include marketing.

      BUT the $115m starting point is also a pretty conservative starting point. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 opened at $150m. Man of Steel opened at $155m. So a $150m+ opening wouldn’t be unreasonable. Guardians of the Galaxy also only went down 1/2 week to week instead of 1/3. Man of Steel similar held well, but not as good.

      BUT Captain America Brave New World opened to $100m and was down 1/4 week to week. Thunderbolts was about the same but didn’t do as good internationally. And sadly The Suicide Squad only opened to $25m and didn’t make back it’s budget (yes, the film that basically handed James Gunn the DC universe.)

      BUT Deadpool & Wolverine opened to ~$300m and ultimately pulled in over $1b once it was done.

      So. As I said, yeah that would be a good opening weekend. But it could trend to just being ok or it could trend to be a HUGE success.