That’s about right. That said, we also don’t know how long regular Switch/Switch 2 carts are going to last. The MaskROM used in the N64/DS and earlier eras is significantly more reliable when stored for a long time than the modern NAND Flash memory as used in the 3DS/Switch+. I suspect key carts won’t have any NAND Flash inside (they don’t need gigabytes of capacity just to store a game name + icon) and might physically last longer.
Of course, key carts are all going to drop to zero value practically overnight when Nintendo eventually pulls the plug, while real carts will die one by one.
That’s about right. That said, we also don’t know how long regular Switch/Switch 2 carts are going to last. The MaskROM used in the N64/DS and earlier eras is significantly more reliable when stored for a long time than the modern NAND Flash memory as used in the 3DS/Switch+. I suspect key carts won’t have any NAND Flash inside (they don’t need gigabytes of capacity just to store a game name + icon) and might physically last longer.
Of course, key carts are all going to drop to zero value practically overnight when Nintendo eventually pulls the plug, while real carts will die one by one.