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This honestly wouldn’t surprise me.
Musk has the ear of the president, and it’s not like Trump gives a shit about space. He’ll rubber stamp whatever Elon wants when it comes to the launch industry, and I didn’t think I have to explain to anyone why cancelling SLS would be good for SpaceX’s bottom line.
Frankly, I think 50/50 odds are way too generous. More like 80/20 in favor of SLS being scraped and access to space being fully privatized for a generation.