I don’t like the clickbait title at all – Mastodon’s clearly going to survive, at least for the forseeable future, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it outlives Xitter.
Still, Mastodon is struggling; most of the people who checkd it out in the November 2022 surge (or the smaller June 2023 surge) didn’t stick around, and numbers have been steadily declining for the last year. The author makes some good points, and some of the comments are excellent.
Bluesky, using ATProto, which as near as I can tell is not used by anyone else, is not part of the fediverse as a result. Since both ActivityPub, and ATProto, and for that matter also Zot, are all open sourced protocols, it is my hope someone will build bridge software that incorporates and provides interoperability between both. Hubzilla would seem an ideal place for that to happen since that is already it’s role, to bridge multiple protocols.
@nanook Actually, quick fun fact, there’s already bridges. Bridgy Fed offers Activity Pub <> AT bridging, and Mostr offers Nostr <> Activity Pub bridging (and can be chained with Bridgy Fed to offer Nostr <> AT bridging). Not aware of any Zot bridges except the Hubzilla plugin that lets you follow AP users.