Wouldn’t he aim and shoot the second (or first) one he can see. Instead of following the match to where the third is? The third could be either side of the first or second.
The belief was that when the first soldier lit his cigarette, the enemy would see the light; when the second soldier lit his cigarette from the same match, the enemy would take aim at the target; and when the third soldier lit his cigarette from the match, the enemy would fire, and that soldier would be shot.
Wouldn’t he aim and shoot the second (or first) one he can see. Instead of following the match to where the third is? The third could be either side of the first or second.
I can’t speak to the mindset of people who are superstitious. I’m just repeating what the alleged basis for the superstition was.