carpoftruth [any, any]

Your bait of falsehood takes this carp of truth; And thus do we of wisdom and of reach, With windlasses and with assays of bias, By indirections find directions out.

  • 17 Posts
  • 1.38K Comments
Joined 3 years ago
cake
Cake day: October 23rd, 2023

help-circle







  • I read this recent think tank report on the German arms industry viz a viz Russia’s

    https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/1f9c7f5f-15d2-45c4-8b85-9bb550cd449d-Kiel_Report_no1.pdf

    The exec summary and chapter 2 is worth reading, otherwise the main takeaways are that Clausewitz was right about industrial war and attrition, ukraine is getting rinsed, nato is not prepared for industrial war. A few other specifics:

    • the authors estimate that the Russian military industrial complex can build the equipment of the current entire German army about 3 times a year

    • on interception of missiles: Sample interception rates for commonly used Russian missiles in 2024: 50% for the older Kalibr subsonic cruise missiles, 22% for modern subsonic cruise missiles (e.g. Kh-69), 4% for modern ballistic missiles (e.g. Iskander-M), 0.6% for S-300/400 supersonic long-range SAM, and 0.55% for the Kh-22 supersonic anti-ship missile. Data on interception rates of hypersonic missiles is scarce: Ukraine claims a 25% interception rate for hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles, but Ukrainian sources also indicate such interceptions require salvo firing all 32 launchers in a US-style Patriot battery to have any chance to shoot down a single hypersonic missile. By comparison, German Patriot batteries have 16 launchers, and Germany has 72 launchers in total.

    • the authors estimate that any slowdown of tank build out rate due to running out of older Soviet era chassis won’t begin until 2026 earliest

    Democratization of advanced strike abilities via proliferation of drone and missile technology is a big deal. It is so much more expensive to defend against these munitions than attack with them. The significance of current world wars are akin to Agincourt, with missiles and drones playing the role of the long bow





  • Tbf, zelensky has never been the one calling the shots. He’s a comedian turned politician - he has no material base of support, he’s never had the ability to meaningfully push back against ukrainian nationalist militias and the torrent of arms and soft support provided them by the west. If he had actually tried to execute the Istanbul Peace deal he would have been executed himself.

    No doubt he’s a comprador, but to imagine him as an actual decision maker on these matters dramatically over states his ability to act independently




  • NATO is now a tiered subscription service and that, conveniently enough,Eastern European nations don’t get the full premium package,but something like the Ukrainian subscription plan.

    NATO has always been a tiered system. The much vaunted article 5 doesn’t say “immediately launch nukes” it says that member states have discretion to do what they think is necessary. In practice, invokation of article 5 will mean doing whatever the US deems necessary. You’d better believe that what they deem necessary differs between the Baltics and say France.

    Upon such attack, each member state is to assist by taking “such action as [the member state] deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”






  • In the context of BC, it has already been tested in 2017-2020. At any point the greens could have flipped on the NDP and done non confidence motions in favour of the the BC right, but they didn’t. Ideologically, the BC greens are very similar to the BC NDP. I sincerely doubt they will take a different approach this time as the Greens are perpetually poor (election campaigns are expensive) and they’re certain not to get a better electoral outcome than being a necessary part of a minority government.

    In general the Canadian greens have for the most part gotten away from the Tories on bikes reputation insofar as the policies and positions they take. The federal greens proved themselves way too vulnerable to Zionist wrecking with the disaster that was annamie paul, but western liberal parties that pay lib service to Palestinian rights being influenced and wrecked by Zionist lobbies is hardly unique to the Canadian greens. More recently, Elizabeth may, the federal Green leader, has really eaten some shit over her attacks on netanyahu. She’s still solidly a lib, but in the context of the Canadian Parliament (kkkanada hitler-detector) she is not bad.

    Again, I think important to note that the actual Tories, for which the Tories on Bikes stereotype was named, are extraordinarily, vocally pro genocide, with the federal Tories recently describing a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities as something that would be a “gift to humanity”.