Sanctions incoming

Sanctions only work when you’re within a few months of initiating a war.

Like, I’d argue the Russian sanctions could be said to be effective because they damaged the Russian economy and sowed civilian chaos at a vital moment in the invasion of Ukraine, and likely is a non-zero contributor to why the war was in Ukraine’s favour at one point.

But the chaos and economic damage of sanctions aren’t permanent. The US could’ve sat on the fabrication issue up until the last moment and kept china dependent on Taiwanese fabs, or even to some extent American fabs.

Instead, they spaffed their one economic and technological advantage up the wall, and in turn triggered a massive Chinese state effort to develop indigenous industries that may just eclipse the US, all while triggering a wave of tech isolationism that is going to slowly strangle American tech hegemony. Any effort to extort that advantage during a war will be negated within the coming months, and in years may prove to be a disadvantage.