From Prof. Eliot Jacobson:

Wow! Wow! Wow!

North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are going vertical again. And yes, I needed to extend the y-axis.

Yesterday’s temperature of 24.49°C (76.08°F) was 4.2σ above the 1991-2020 mean. The previous high for July 17 was 23.71°C (74.68°F) in 2020.

https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1681321023306874880

    • Ertebolle@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      On a planetary scale, I don’t think we’re going to have trouble feeding ourselves, it’s just that a) meat is going to become thoroughly unaffordable and b) an awful lot of crop production is going to shift towards the poles, creating many a geopolitical clusterfuck along the way.

      Disaster movies are too obvious, and too tidy; it’s going to be a century of the average human’s life getting just a bit more hellish every year. Acutely hellish for some, barely hellish at all for others, but basically, we’re going to slowly roll back most of the improvements in human welfare over the past few centuries until we’ve got starving serfs all over the place and plagues and famines and natural disasters absolutely flattening entire countries for years at a time.

    • 1chemistdown@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      We already are experiencing that. Crab fishing season was cancelled in 2022 due to a sudden “where are our missing billions of crab?” Other fishing areas are likewise being affected.

      Massive crop failures in China, Russia, Middle East, Africa, south and Central America have been going on for several years. Potable water is disappearing in many regions, forcing massive water migration.

    • 😈MedicPig🐷BabySaver😈@lemm.ee
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      1 year ago

      Very fucking soon.

      You ever watch disaster movies? They’re only 2-2.5hrs average.

      Well, imagine this is a movie. The 100+ years of data we ignored was that “secret file” that was just discovered. The new high temps are the geeky science guy yelling “oh shit!”

      Remember what happens right after that? Very, very quick collapse. Food disaster, heat disaster, weather events and oxygen decrease in our atmosphere.

      We’ll either starve, boil, suffocate or kill each other trying to survive.

      I think it’s within a couple years. Not decades that is typically reported.

      • ℛ𝒶𝓋ℯ𝓃@pawb.social
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        1 year ago

        This isn’t the free market we imagined… it’s unregulated capitalism, to the point that smaller eco-friendly companies can’t compete. At this point the market isn’t free anymore.

        • TokenBoomer@lemmy.world
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          1 year ago

          It never was. Remember, capitalism has to be regulated to work. Adam Smith even said so. Looking at you ancaps and libertarians.

          According to Adam Smith, markets and trade are, in principle, good things—provided there is competition and a regulatory framework that prevents ruthless selfishness, greed and rapacity from leading to socially harmful outcomes.

        • red_october@reddthat.com
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          1 year ago

          We need to stop this rhetoric. This is what “free market capitalism” always devolves into. It is not Marxists who are utopians, it is capitalists who believe that this is not the natural end result of the accumulation of power and rise of corruption that is inherent to capitalism.

        • Cruxifux@lemmy.world
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          1 year ago

          George Washington was one of the richest men in the world. What do you think he was imagining exactly?

            • Cruxifux@lemmy.world
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              1 year ago

              He was the first US president and paved the way for the writing of the constitution, which is the basis of how the wests entire capitalist structure (and due to US controlled international hegemony, the world). Does that clear it up a bit for you where my point is? I can explain it further if you want. It’s not the only factor, but when people say “this isn’t the free market capitalism that was intended!” I tend to roll my eyes.

              • kwking13@lemm.ee
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                1 year ago

                I tend to roll my eyes when people think any one man is responsible for setting up the entire Western capitalist structure. I don’t actually think that’s what you’re saying, but it’s important to note that George Washington may have been the final decider, but had otherwise little to do with forming and reforming the policies that make up the capitalist structure as we know it today. It’s extremely lazy to try and blame it on any one person.

                • queermunist she/her@lemmy.ml
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                  1 year ago

                  The intent is to blame the Founders, and they all were rich slave owners and businessmen. The entire American revolution was reactionary. This is what they wanted.

      • Gork@lemmy.ml
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        1 year ago

        We need an equivalent word for climate change where the line always goes up.

    • marcos@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      No, the GP is talking about proportional effects. A tipping point is some completely different thing.

  • BurnTheRight@kbin.social
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    1 year ago

    Thank a conservative. There will be no solution to climate change while conservatives have any power at all. The time for aggressive action to end conservatism is now.

  • Chainweasel@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    It takes about ~30 years to see the effects of emissions on the climate. That means the climate crisis we’re experiencing right now is only the emissions up to ~1993. Looking at CO2 emissions alone, in 1993 the global total was 22.8 billion tonnes. The latest Data available is from 2021, which shows the global CO2 emissions at 37.1 billion tonnes. That’s in increase of 14.3 billion tonnes of annual CO2 emissions in the amount of time it takes us to feel the effects, that’s a 61% increase in Annual emissions, Not Total emissions. If we stopped all CO2 emissions today, it would continue to get considerably worse for at least the next quarter-century. We are truly Fucked on the bleeding edge of that climate “tipping point” and major changes are about to start happening very rapidly.

    source for CO2 emissions numbers: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

      • perestroika@lemm.ee
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        1 year ago

        I think it’s a misunderstanding, not a myth.

        CO2 influences the greenhouse effect - keeping more solar energy on Earth.

        Solar energy gets converted into heat, heat gets absorbed. Some of it gets absorbed by oceans. Some of CO2 also gets absorbed by oceans - their pH decreases. The greenhouse effect doesn’t require great time, but oceanic warming and acidification does require time. Interaction happens on the surface, but the volume is great.

        Thus, delays in response are inevitable. Response may also depend on circulation - an ocean current slowing or speeding up.

    • Cybermass@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      Where did you learn that CO2 emissions take 30 years to have an effect on our atmosphere?? I’ve never heard that.

      • BastingChemina@slrpnk.net
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        1 year ago

        Imagine a bull in a china shop destroying everything, now there is two options :

        • 1- you take the bull out of the shop
        • 2- you decide that it would be to inconvenient to take the bull out but you are sure that in a few decades we will invent a technology that can repair the China faster than the bull is destroying it.

        Carbon capture is the option 2, we continue to break the carbon molecules for energy pretending that we can recapture later. It’s not gonna happen, we need to stop emitting NOW and maybe we can think about carbon capture.

      • xapr@lemmy.sdf.org
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        1 year ago

        Apparently the scale that’s required makes it completely impractical, especially given the timelines that are also required.

        • theneverfox@pawb.social
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          1 year ago

          Only in the way that can be monetized or industrialized, and only if we actually cut down on emissions (instead of just slowing the growth rate a little)

          There’s plastic bottles everywhere. There’s people everywhere. What if every human spent an hour a day on little algae bioreactors? It’s grade school level science, all you need is bottles, non-potable water, a knife, and any old cloth to strain it out.

          And, of course, algae… But once you get started, that’ll be easy to come by. It’ll even naturally adapt to local conditions, and there’s versions that can be used as food - the rest can be dried and used as fertilizer. It not only provides nutrients and increases water retention, it also helps mycillium regrow, repairing the soil. This also reduces runoff and feeds into water tables

          Ever since this idea popped into my head, I’ve felt there’s something there - I met someone working for a company that is doing this commercially, and I can’t help but think if we can do it in a distributed manner it could help with a lot of issues

  • CookieJarObserver@sh.itjust.works
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    1 year ago

    Please keep Elninio in mind.

    Climate change certainly plays a big part, but currently Elninio is likely the most impacting thing

    I can’t awnser @Skyler

    Yes, Climate change, as said, plays a very significant role, but Elninio currently makes it a lot worse, the last Elninios where very weak, this one now relatively strong

    • guriinii@lemmy.worldOP
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      1 year ago

      This is also related to the change in fuels for ships. They banned something that emits aerosols which has reduced the masking effect. And this started prior to El Niño starting. It’s likely a combination of the above and some other tipping point shenanigans

    • Skyler@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      There were multiple El Nino events during the period of 1982-2022 and yet none of them come close to 2023.